"It's time to focus on what actually works"

Vertical farming is no longer a hype. Nor is it a guaranteed success. After an initial wave of investor enthusiasm and growth up to 2021, the industry was hit hard with rising energy prices due to geopolitical unrest and scalability difficulties.

Leo Marcelis, Professor of Horticulture and Head of the leading group at Wageningen University & Research in the Netherlands, shares his vision on the key trends that will shape the future of vertical farming.

"We've learned a lot. Now it's time to focus on what actually works," says Marcelis.

Energy: the unforgiving variable
Nothing will shape the future of vertical farming more than energy. It's one of the biggest operational challenges: driving costs, shaping sustainability credentials and ultimately determining whether a vertical farm can become viable.

As Marcelis states: "Energy usage must come down. Not just for farm profitability, but to stay credible as a sustainable option."

Energy price volatility is here to stay and has become an important part of the business case. Farms must move away from static lighting schedules and embrace dynamic energy strategies: add more lighting when prices drop and scaling back during peak times. The challenge? Ensure the crops can handle these dynamic circumstances. This is where science and horticulture meet.

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When it comes to lighting, advanced LED systems nowadays offer independent control of many different light channels. That gives farmers enormous flexibility, but most of them still use lighting in traditional ways and don't know how to operate on these flexible schedules yet. Marcelis notes: "There's a big knowledge gap. We're only just beginning to understand how to use dynamic lighting effectively."

Step by step towards smart, autonomous farming
The future of vertical farming is highly automated, but this takes time. Many farms already use sensors and climate software and while AI is slowly playing a bigger role, it is not the silver bullet.

"AI is a tool, not a replacement. We should use AI where we lack the knowledge, but don't let it replace what we already know that works," says Marcelis.

The most effective vertical farms will combine expert knowledge with data-driven automation. In many ways, Marcelis argues, the challenge isn't the lack of tech, it's the failure to implement it effectively. "We have the tools, but I see companies where things still don't work. Why? Because vertical farming is harder in practice than on paper."

Autonomous growing, sensor integration, and algorithmic steering are already technically possible, but they require scale and discipline. According to Marcelis, only medium-to-large farms are likely to be able to afford full automation.

New markets and a surprising crop contender
According to Marcelis, not every region will adopt vertical farming at the same speed. Currently, harsh climates and geopolitical pressures are the main drivers for adoption and will likely continue to be in the future.

"Look at Singapore. They want to produce 30% of their food locally by 2030. However, they have limited available land and an unstable climate. Vertical farming is not optional, it's necessary."

Similar growth is expected in oil-rich Middle Eastern nations, where energy is cheap, water is scarce, and food security is a strategic priority. Japan, Korea, and parts of China are also seeing renewed interest in vertical farms. In Europe, supermarkets will be a critical force. They want stable supply, traceability, and quality. Vertical farms can deliver that, but only if the business case adds up.

Marcelis also points to crop diversification as a key opportunity. While leafy greens, herbs, and microgreens remain the foundation of most vertical farms, the next frontier is already taking shape. One standout contender? "Strawberries – they are fragile, expensive to transport, popular and healthy. Strawberries are ideally suited for local, controlled production. That makes it a perfect match for vertical farming."

Yet mastering strawberry cultivation in vertical systems still demands significant R&D. Tomatoes are also under investigation, but with lower margins and stronger competition from greenhouse production, they remain a tougher economic case.

On a broader level, Marcelis highlights a critical structural gap: crop genetics. Most varieties used in vertical farming were originally bred for greenhouses, not stacked environments. Purpose-built breeding programs could unlock major efficiency gains, but developing new cultivars is a long game, often taking 5 to 10 years to deliver results. Marcelis: "We are working with major crop breeders to define the traits vertical farms need. It's a long road, but essential for the next phase."

What makes a vertical farm successful?
Successful farms don't just grow good plants or use high-tech gear. They also need to understand the market and have a clear business case. "The best farms have three things: technical growing knowledge, smart systems, and commercial intelligence. Miss one of those, and you're in trouble."

Marcelis' advice: build a strong team, no one can do it alone. And remember, vertical farming is not about keeping everything stable. It's about steering things in the right direction at the right time.

Mastering the art of control
For Marcelis, vertical farming is not only about creating the perfect environment, it is about mastering the art of control. By aligning technology, plant biology, and market dynamics, the industry can mature into a stable pillar of modern agriculture. As Marcelis puts it: "We know what works, and what doesn't. Let's build on that."